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border-left: #e4e4e4 1px solid; padding-bottom: 1px; background-color: #f2f2f2; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; border-top: #e4e4e4 1px solid; border-right: #e4e4e4 1px solid; padding-top: 0px" align="center"> <table border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"> <tbody> <tr> <td bgcolor="#e3eef6" height="1"></td></tr> <tr> <td style="padding-bottom: 6px; padding-left: 7px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 6px"><img alt="" src="http://www.ihaesa.com/img/IC_sub_mu_g.gif" /> <a class="s_link" href="http://www.ihaesa.com/News/sub_list.html?Pass=K--N" target="_blank">주요해사인</a></td></tr> <tr> <td height="2" background="http://www.ihaesa.com/img/Left_mu_bg2.gif"></td></tr> <tr> <td style="padding-bottom: 6px; padding-left: 7px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 6px"><img alt="" src="http://www.ihaesa.com/img/IC_sub_mu_g.gif" /> <a class="s_link" href="http://www.ihaesa.com/News/sub_list.html?Pass=L--N" target="_blank">경제정책</a></td></tr> <tr> <td height="2" background="http://www.ihaesa.com/img/Left_mu_bg2.gif"></td></tr> <tr> <td style="padding-bottom: 6px; 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padding-left: 9px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 4px" height="21" background="http://www.ihaesa.com/img/loc_bg.gif"><a class="loc" href="http://www.ihaesa.com/News/index1.html" target="_blank">HOME</a> > <a class="loc" href="http://www.ihaesa.com/News/list.html?Pass=IB-9" target="_blank">해사칼럼</a> > <a class="loc" href="http://www.ihaesa.com/News/sub_list.html?Pass=IB-9" target="_blank"><strong>독자투고</strong></a> </td></tr> <tr> <td height="24" valign="middle" align="right"> <table border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="137"> <tbody> <tr> <td><a href="http://www.ihaesa.com/News/sub_list.html?Pass=IB-9-" target="_blank"><img border="0" alt="" src="http://www.ihaesa.com/img/btn_list.gif" /></a></td> <td><img alt="" src="http://www.ihaesa.com/img/bar1.gif" width="16" height="11" /></td> <td><a href="javascript:;" target="_blank"><img alt="" src="http://www.ihaesa.com/img/btn_print.gif" width="62" height="12" /></a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr> <tr> <td> <table border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"> <tbody> <tr> <td style="line-height: 150%"><font class="B_00458A">법무법인 세창제언:그리이스의 운명은</font><br /><font color="#7c7c7c">[2011/09/30 17:31 입력]</font></td></tr> <tr> <td style="padding-bottom: 10px; line-height: 145%; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 10px"> <table border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="503"> <tbody> <tr height="300"> <td valign="top" colspan="2"><style type="text/css"> .VBN_42585 { FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #000000; WORD-BREAK: break-all; LINE-HEIGHT: normal; FONT-FAMILY: 굴림 } .VBN_42585 P { MARGIN-TOP: 2px; FONT-SIZE: 9pt; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 2px; COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: normal; FONT-FAMILY: 굴림; TEXT-DECORATION: none } .VBN_42585 TD { MARGIN-TOP: 2px; FONT-SIZE: 9pt; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 2px; COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: normal; FONT-FAMILY: 굴림; TEXT-DECORATION: none } .VBN_42585 LI { MARGIN-TOP: 2px; FONT-SIZE: 9pt; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 2px; COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: normal; FONT-FAMILY: 굴림; TEXT-DECORATION: none } .VBN_42585 FONT { MARGIN-TOP: 2px; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 2px; LINE-HEIGHT: normal } .VBN_97131 { FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 굴림 }</style><span style="position: relative" id="VBN_23247"> <div style="width: 100%" class="VBN_42585"> <div><font color="#0028e7" size="2">법무법인 세창제언:그리이스의 운명은</font></div> <div><br /><font size="2"><img style="margin-right: 10px" border="0" alt="" align="left" src="http://www.ihaesa.com/bbs_up/1317371505.bmp" width="169" height="201" />안녕하세요. 법무법인 세창의 이광후 변호사입니다.</font></div> <div><br /><font size="2">지난주 금요일 대한해운의 회생절차와 관련하여 서울중앙지방법원에서 채권자 집회가 열렸는데, 채권자 동의율이 조금 부족하여 회생계획안이 통과되지 못하였고, 다음 달에나 회생계획안이 마무리될 것 같습니다. </font></div> <div><br /><font size="2">2008년 해운경기의 급락으로 대한해운을 비롯한 국내 유수의 선사나 조선소들이, 그리고 미국 발 금융위기로부터 시작된 국제적인 금융위기의 여파로, 국내 많은 건설사들이 회생절차나 파산 또는 기업구조개선절차를 진행하는 등 어려움을 겪고 있습니다. </font></div> <div><br /><font size="2">구조조정이나 파산문제는 기업에만 한정되는 것이 아니고 국가도 예외는 아닌가 봅니다. 헬레니즘과 그리스정교를 찬란하게 꽃피웠던 그리이스가 재정적자를 이기지 못하고 국가 부도의 위기에 처해있습니다. 20세기 선박왕 오나시스의 나라 그리이스는 세계 1위의 해운국입니다. 우리나라 조선소들의 주요 고객들 상당수가 그리이스 회사들이고, 대한해운 회생절차에 참가한 최대 채권자들도 그리이스 국적 선사들입니다. </font></div> <div><br /><font size="2">그리이스를 파산시키면 그만이라고 하실 분도 계시겠지만 그리 간단한 문제가 아닙니다. </font></div> <div><br /><font size="2">그리이스를 파산시킬 경우, 직접적인 피해는 그리이스에 돈을 많이 빌려준 프랑스나 독일의 은행들이 큰 손해를 볼 수 밖에 없어, 이로 인해 이들 채권국의 은행 부실로 이어져 위기가 확산될 수 있습니다. 또한, 그리이스와 유사한 입장에 있는 포르투갈, 스페인, 이탈리아 등 인접국가들의 부도로 확산될 경우 전세계적인 공황이 발생할 수도 있습니다. </font></div> <div><br /><font size="2">그리이스 문제는, 외부요인의 충격에 취약한 한국경제에 큰 충격을 주고 있는데, 특히 최근 주식시장과 외환시장에서 이를 피부로 절감하고 있습니다. 그리이스 문제는 하나로 통합된 경제체제하에서는 단순히 그리이스만의 문제에 그치는 것이 아닙니다. </font></div> <div><br /><font size="2">그래서, 그리이스 문제를 해결하기 위해 구제금융, 채무재조정, 그리이스의 유로존 탈퇴 등이 논의되고 있는 것 같습니다. </font></div> <div><br /><font size="2">큰 부작용이 없는 구제금융으로 해결될 수 있다면 최선이라 하겠으나, 국채이자율이 백프로를 넘나들고 있어 그리이스가 사실상 빌린 돈을 값을 능력이 없는 데도 구제금융으로 해결될 수 있을 지는 의문입니다. 채무를 재조정하는 방법도, 그리이스 내부의 구조적 문제를 해결하지 않는 이상 근본적인 해결책이 될 수 없을 것으로 보입니다. 그리이스를 유로존에서 탈퇴시키고 자국화폐인 드라크마(Drachma)를 사용하도록 하면, 그리이스 외부로의 파급효과를 상당히 제한시킬 수 있을 것입니다. 그리이스는 유로화 사용으로 인해 잃어 버렸던 금융정책 수단을 가지게 되는 반면, 하이퍼인플레이션의 영향을 벗어나기 힘들 것입니다. 다만 그리이스를 유로존에서 탈퇴시키는 것은 유로존의 존재를 스스로 부인하는 것이 되어 실현 가능성은 많지 않아 보입니다. </font></div> <div><br /><font size="2">현재 상황에서는, 어떠한 방법이든 부작용이 뒤따를 것으로 보이고 그리이스는 엄청난 고통을 피할 수 없을 것입니다. 그리이스의 운명은 채권국들의 손에 달려 있는 것입니다. </font></div> <div><br /><font size="2">전세계 모든 국가가 하나의 경제공동체를 형성하고 있어 상호 영향을 주고받을 수 밖에 없는 현실을 고려한다면, 국가 부도 상황을 관리할 수 있는 제도나 장치를 마련할 필요가 있어 보입니다. </font></div> <div><br /><font size="2">그리이스는 성장동력을 상실하고 재정적자에 허덕이며 늙어가는 유럽의 자화상이라 할 수 있겠지요?. 우리나라도 재정적자에 허덕이는 그리이스, 미국 등을 교훈 삼아 과도한 재정적자가 발생하지 않도록 예산편성과 집행에 있어서 각별한 노력을 하여야 할 것입니다. 특히 성급한 복지 포퓰리즘을 경계하여야 할 것입니다. </font></div> <div><br /><font size="2">그리이스 문제가 잘 해결되어, 그리이스는 물론이고 채권국이나 세계경제에도 큰 타격을 주지 않는 방향으로 해결되기를 기대해 봅니다. </font></div> <div><font size="2"> </font></div></div></span></td></tr> <tr> <td style="padding-bottom: 16px; 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